Market Update: Plywood Buyer Caution Grows as Fall Demand Softens

The Western Plywood market has cooled off over recent weeks, as buyers continue their tight buying strategy. Fundamentals are relatively unchanged. Inventories in the field remain lean. But seasonal factors and high plywood prices have turned buyers cautious as we turn the calendar into November.

Prices have softened a bit as order files shorten from 2-3 weeks to 1-2 weeks. Demand seems to be ok, but certainly not great. Residential housing is challenging in most parts of the country, as interest rates remain stubbornly high compared to what buyers were anticipating earlier in the year.

The midterm elections and geopolitical events loom large on the horizon, as businesses and consumers try to assess how the outcomes of these events will affect them. No surprise.

Other commodity sectors seem to be unspectacular. Southern Pine Plywood prices have been flat for many, many weeks, and remain a substantial discount to their western counterparts. 

OSB, while up from lows in the summertime, still seems to be range-bound, as demand plods along at a pedestrian pace, and despite some curtailments, there still appears to be too much OSB production. Dimension lumber markets are unremarkable – with modest downward adjustments across the board in recent weeks for most species.

It feels like most people have a wait-and-see attitude, generally. The midterm elections next week will certainly give the country some sense of direction for the next two years, but one way or the other, the country will remain divided, with some of the vexing issues of our country – government spending / national debt, housing, pensions, healthcare – still largely unsolved. 

With the political parties so polarized, now more than ever, it’s hard to see what will change. As a head coach implores his team in a comeback effort, “who’s going to make a big play, to turn the tide? Who’s going to make a play?” Someone has to.

Please vote and be an informed voter. The sparkly things that may seem novel and inviting to many young people – that is, free stuff – are just a dangerous illusion. History has shown that time and again. Ultimately, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

This country gives its people the greatest gift of all – personal agency to make their own decisions and forge their own paths in life. That agency is very important, and priceless. Vote for American liberty and freedom and agency – and not for destructive socialist candidates that want to dismantle our country.