The commodity plywood market has shown some improvement over the past couple of weeks. Last week, we saw stronger sales and were able to firm up prices modestly across the board. Field inventories remain light, and even with measured demand, many customers were compelled to place fill-in orders. The higher volumes were a welcome change of pace.
That said, the market remains cautious. The field continues to be intentionally underbought, with mills holding the bulk of inventory and functioning as de facto warehouses for the industry.
There’s a lot in motion right now. Impending announcements on tariffs and trade policy could significantly influence commodity markets. Anti-dumping duties already in place on Canadian lumber have spurred a slight uptick in buying activity at U.S. sawmills. It’s not a dramatic shift, but conditions are certainly better than they’ve been. The big question: is this the beginning of sustained momentum for the U.S. market?
August 1 is a key deadline for international tariff negotiations. Over the past week to ten days, trade deals with multiple countries have been announced, and more could follow. These changes, along with the proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian products from the Trump administration, could reshape market dynamics in the near term.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its July FOMC meeting by keeping interest rates unchanged. Two of the twelve governors dissented, voting instead to lower rates by 25 basis points. While the decision to hold rates was widely anticipated, it was a disappointment to many in the industry and in the current administration, who are eager for anything that might spark a boost in building activity—which remains sluggish.
With another six weeks until the Fed’s next meeting in September, all eyes now turn to the upcoming tariff announcements. They could mark an important turning point for the industry. For now, we wait and watch.
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