Sales of commodity plywood have improved slightly over the past couple of weeks. It’s not a breakout by any means, but any positive movement is welcome in the current environment. Good, not great—we’ll take good for now.
The plywood demand outlook is starting to show small signs of life. Drier, warmer weather in the western U.S., combined with moderating conditions in the Midwest and East, has supported better shipping activity into the field. Movement remains measured, but it’s noticeably better than what we saw earlier this year.
Still, the dominant theme across distribution remains the same: cautious, just-in-time buying. Light inventories and modest underlying demand are driving frequent, but careful, purchasing. The recent fill-in buying has been a bright spot, but sustaining that momentum will be key if we want to see real improvement heading into summer.
Prices continue to favor customers right now, not mills. At current levels, most commodity plywood prices are below mills’ breakeven costs. That’s putting additional pressure on an industry already stretched thin. Overall, West Coast lumber and plywood producers are struggling at the bottom line, with pricing stuck at the lower end of the 24-month range.
Everyone across the supply chain should be hoping for—and working toward—a healthier market this spring and summer. Stronger pricing benefits mills, dealers, distributors, and builders alike. A more stable and sustainable market allows the entire industry to plan, invest, and deliver better outcomes for customers.
Uncertainty around trade policies and tariffs continues to weigh on decision-making. With so many unknowns still looming, many buyers are playing it safe, keeping inventory lean, and relying heavily on mills as their warehouse. This kind of cautious strategy builds volatility into the system. Everyone is on the same side of the boat—and when that happens, even a small shift can cause major waves.
As we enter building season, the conditions are right for a market jolt. Demand fundamentals remain strong. But when that shift will happen—and how sharp it will be—is hard to predict.
For now, we’re keeping a close watch and staying ready for what’s next. Time will tell.
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