The past month has been mostly steady in sales, with a pace that has held up reasonably well. Over the last 10 weeks, we’ve actually recorded our best sales stretch of the year.
Seven of those ten weeks came in with sales above production, and only three were slower. Even so, pricing has barely moved. The amount of wood purchased each week remains limited, and producers like us continue to rely heavily on our regular customer base for the vast majority of that volume. Customers are still using mills as their warehouse, which has become a defining characteristic of this market cycle.
There are, however, some encouraging signs beginning to emerge. We’re seeing customers start to cover first-quarter 2026 needs now—primarily on the commercial side, but new construction activity nonetheless. Buyers are still playing it close to the vest, purchasing only what they need each week and avoiding carrying excess inventory.
Interest rates have improved, but they still need to come down further to influence demand in a meaningful way. At this point, it appears likely that we’ll see another 25 basis point cut in December, which will help. Beyond that, additional cuts seem less certain. “Affordability” has become the key word across the housing sector—not only in terms of home purchases, but in day-to-day expenses for middle-income households. The broader economy continues to feel uneven depending on where you sit.
Looking ahead, we hope to see some lift across wood products markets in 2026. There are more long-term positives than negatives for the economy, but we still need to move through the current conditions to get there. Commodity prices will need to improve next year for most producers to remain viable. At some point, the market will turn upward—potentially even sharply—but the first step is clear: residential home buying needs to gain momentum.
We’ll be watching closely in the months ahead to see whether our markets can shake off this extended malaise and move into a stronger position as we head toward 2026.
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